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Do you Really have to Win Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania is an important state, no doubt about it. But here's what Mark Nevins from the Clinton Campaign there said "You can't really expect to win the general election if you can't win Pennsylvania."
Now, let's put this to the test of logic. First, we note that John Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004, and George Bush won the general election.
Ok, so let's grant that Nevins probably meant that a Democrat could not win the general election without Pennsylvania. He was, however, clearly applying his statement about winning of Pennsylvania to the primary to be held there in April. In doing so, he implied that a Democrat could not win the general election if they could not win the Pennsylvania primary against another Democrat. This suggests that all the Democrats in Pennsylvania who vote for Obama in the primary would abandon the party for John McCain if Clinton wins the nomination, or that all the Democrats there who vote for Clinton in the primary would abandon the party for McCain should Obama be the nominee.
I don't think either is likely. The same is of other vital Blue states. Illinois isn't likely go to McCain if Clinton is the nominee just because Obama carried it in the primary season. Similarly, Massachusetts isn't likely to go to McCain if Obama is the nominee.
I understand that Nevins is trying to help his candidate win the Pennsylvania primary. But implying the direct translation to November is dangerous. All this talk about Democratic in fighting is dangerous, and a bit wrongheaded. In the end, the people excited about the Obama candidacy or about the Clinton candidacy are not going to abandon the party for McCain. The question is who is capable of continuing to build the excitement (especially among new voters) and who can win back for the Democrats those who abandoned the party to vote for Reagan. That's what will determine a Democrats ability to win in November, not the winning or loosing of the Pennsylvania (or Illinois, or Massachusetts, or ...(fill in the state)) primary.
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Here's another example of a stupid head line. It's hard to see how ties can test. False attribution of agency.................
Alcohol industry ties may test McCain
Concerns on taxes, drinking age raised
By Michael Kranish
Globe Staff / March 9, 2008
PHOENIX - The Anheuser-Busch distribution plant stretches for acres, capped by a giant Budweiser sign gleaming in the desert sun. It is here that much of the fortune of Senator John McCain's family is made. His wife, Cindy, is chairwoman of the board. His son from his first marriage, Andrew, is chief financial officer. McCain himself once served as the company's chief publicist.
Huron John
Sun, 03/09/08
Reply to this
I regard home-schooling as one of the more egregious froms of child abuse
==================
I suggest you get counseling, John. Parents have been educating their children since time immemorial - while one can debate the value of public education, if you see parents teaching their siblings as abuse, you have some serious mental issues.
Unfortunately, parents are not made automatically wise by parenthood, even when it's not accidental. More children are killed by their parents each year than ever by strangers. Many more are horribly abused, often in the name of religious beliefs.
Do remember that Abraham was willing to kill his son.
"Mr. McCain has yet to make his full medical records or his physicians available to reporters. At least three times since March 2007, campaign officials have told The New York Times that they would provide the detailed information about his current state of health, but they have not done so. The campaign now says it expects to release the information in April"...
Huron ~ I hope one day you can meet some of the wonderful folks out there homeschooling. Actually, think of listener ~ she homeschooled her kids and they are all highly successful adults ~ not to mention there isn't a wisp of ignorance, arrogance, or warping in her or her hubby. I implore you to take another look.
:-)
2:00 pm est
that snarky dnc memo on the last thread was so good! if you missed it, it's worth a click...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/9/11300/67610/381/472542
Monica Smith
Sun, 03/09/08
Reply to this
Unfortunately, parents are not made automatically wise by parenthood, even when it's not accidental. More children are killed by their parents each year than ever by strangers.
----------------------------
I don't have any statistics off hand, but I have heard more stories of abuse by foster parents than biological parents.
Like the old saying, you make law for the rule. Making law for the exception to the rule makes bad law.
And you don't make an argument against all parental authority by calling all parents bad parents.
No matter how many children die in car accidents every year, nobody is going to suggest children don't ride in cars.
Alcohol industry ties may test McCain
The alcohol lobby is one of the most influential in Washington. Although McCain has recused himself on alcohol issues, he has not refused the industry's money. Out of all candidates for all federal offices in 2008 - the White House, Senate, and House - McCain has received more alcohol industry money than all but two.
The top recipient was Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, with $210,750......
Clinton obviously won't be able to tie McSame to the alcoholic industry.
The campaign now says it expects to release the information in April"...
The same time as TheClintons tax returns.
Another likely story.
Wow Alan Nevis!
That is a terrific blog. All your logic is compelling and accurate. It just takes some thinking to come to your comclusions and sometimes we get lazy in that respect.
Thanks for that blog. I am going to print it, email it to the Obama site, etc.
-
The clinton's are probably busing amending the returns so she can file separately than Bill - all those foreign sources of income...
The question is who is capable of continuing to build the excitement (especially among new voters) and who can win back for the Democrats those who abandoned the party to vote for Reagan.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Here is the point at which I depart from the Obama conventional wisdom. Jimmy Carter dared to challenge the notion that we needed a bigger and bigger military, that an affront overseas demanded a bombing run. some Democrats left him over that. he put human rights and diplomacy on the table and sabre rattling off
and he refused to buy into supply side economics and thought fiscal discipline more important than feel good taxcuts
hence Reagan (taxcut/big military) Democrats
forget about it
I'm more interested in normal Republican voters revulsed by their Party who will have their operatives scratching their heads trying to get back the Obama Republicans of Hope and Change for a few decades
and I sure don't want a Democratic nominee who promotes tax cuts and a big military to get back some will o wisp mythical "Democrat"
How about instead we appeal to the tens of millions who don't vote at all because they can't tell the difference between the Parties and offer them a vision of the future that includes them
I did an interesting exercise today, just because I was curious. I went through all the Democratic primaries and caucus states to date. I applied delegates as if the states were all winner take all, instead of the way they are. I also included both portions of the Texas system.
If everything to date were winner take all the results would be as follows: Obama 1351 and Clinton 1344. This accounts for no super delegates.
I also took future contests and gave Clinton Pennsylvania; and gave Obama Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. I think all of those are pretty accurate. That would give Obama 1582 and Clinton 1502. I left Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico and Guam as toss ups; and did not include Florida or Michigan.
My conclusions...none really; except that if it was winner take all, it would be slightly closer.
Jo, I don't know what post of mine you agreed with and that surprised me. :-) I posted several things about how to start a peace process. Among other things, we have to stop the blame game on our end and start trusting the process. And Lordy, we have to stop judging people which is different from discerning. (By we I mean the US gov't.)
"people are not good or bad, but thinking makes it so."
(can't remember the author)
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DFA needs to endorse Obama; take a vote and see who we support.
We already endorsed him, didn't we, and he promised to stay out his term; a promise already broken. I won't endorse him again. Nor Hillary. Unless one of both of them chooses a VP and I like the choice.
**************************
Someone made a remark about how there are 3 or 4 anti-semites on the blog. As Judy said, (these are my words) this kind of trashing and labeling exists only in the States. And thank you, Judy, for info on Rabbi Lerner. We need more like him at the peace table I've been ranting about... and people who stop with the "chosen people" schtick which is the height of spiritual arrogance and *justifies* opening the door towards endless violence towards others. Tunnel-vision religion is very dangerous.
To use the current vernacular, god doesn't choose people, people choose god.
In my vernacular: we are not chosen; we choose to either love or fear (hate).
The other disturbing thing happening here is bloggers telling other bloggers to get help, get therapy. Oftentimes people tell other people what they themselves should be doing. It's that shadow projecting thing that we fall prey to. I wouldn't presume to know who *needs* therapy and who doesn't, altho I, too, could make some guesses. It's called taking others' inventory and that's not my business, is it? My business is to clean up my own act.
I think this was the shortest sunday sermon I've ever written LOL
another busy day...if you see parents teaching their siblings as abuse,
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This has exactly *what* to do with homeschooling?
In the end, the people excited about the Obama candidacy or about the Clinton candidacy are not going to abandon the party for McCain.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Maybe not, but I'm hearing a growing cohort of peeps that ain't voting for no more weevils. Even if it means NOT voting for preznit. And we've only one weevil left. . . .
I think this election does have the opportunity to be a decades long map changer for the Democratic Party in part because of the synergy of the Dean Fifty State and the Obama transcendental post Party appeal. bottom to top politics, no triangulation, no targeted states or races, win them all if you can, but compete everywhere
seashell, I think because the Democratic Convention comes after the Republican one, either of our candidates needs to wait to see the team they are up against
If McCain picks Crist you probably need to write off Florida to some extent tactically so you look to pick up Virginia, Carolina, Missouri not because they are a narrow electoral strategy but because of the Obama appeal that will win those states, heck throw in Texas as being in play or enhance the appeal with the mtn west with a pick from there
it is why Florida might be making a big mistake to take it to the Credentials Committee, you really can win without them, with an Obama ticket
the blue states are a given, and Hillary is making a bogus argument saying she can win them, it is more like it is her only chance to be President is to go that route, Kerry's states plus Ohio(which I think she could win and squeak out a narrow victory over McCain)
john mccain's medical history of melanoma should be a concern to all voters. melanoma is a fast-moving killer--sometimes as short as a few weeks--and the man has gone more than one round against it. that means he's in remission, not cured.
btw, ariz has a high skin cancer rate. melanoma is the deadliest.
***************
speaking of mccain and his legendary temper undermining his ability to be commander-in-chief, an example of that played out when a nytimes reporter asked him about a bipartisan ticket with john kerry.
here's more on presidential temperament [mark benjamin, 'it's 3 am. who do you want answering the phone?' salon.com, mar 6, 2008:
quoting stephen wayne, political scientist at georgetown univ, who studies presidential personality......"I just gave a presentation on Hillary's temperament for the presidency. I came to the conclusion that it is not really a good presidential temperament, with one caveat--if you compare it with McCain's." does anyone have a transcript of that speech?
quoting ret rear admiral john hutson, long-time repub who supports obama....."When everybody else goes nuts, the president of the United States needs to get cooler and cooler." how about not throwing the kitchen sink?
read the rest of the piece. you, too, claire shipman. you touted presidential temperament as a supreme qualification in the 2004 dem primaries. don't get too cozy with punxsutawney phil.
**************
assoc press has a story about tainted KBR [halliburton affiliate] water on iraqi bases making troops sick. it's not drinking water, but that used for personal hygiene and laundry. nonetheless, bad stuff is appearing and that can become systemic through breaks in the skin. does war not break skin? what a revelation!
The main argument I am using with Super Delegates to get them to support Obama is that we have the opportunity to win MORE, if he is the nominee and President than we will get with Clinton as the nominee and President, bigger, longer lasting gains that change the map.
Count the delegates, folks.
http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscen...
Contrary to the Clintonista's Penn spin machine, we smaller seemingly "insignificant" caucus states do indeed matter (it all adds up). Go, WY--and on to MS.
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
"Hillary’s New Math Problem
Tuesday's big wins? The delegate calculus just got worse."
http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010/page/1...
17.
puddle
Sun, 03/09/08
if you see parents teaching their siblings as abuse,
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This has exactly *what* to do with homeschooling?
=================================
Nothing - it was John who made the linkeage
84.
Huron John
Sun, 03/09/08
I regard home-schooling as one of the more egregious froms of child abuse
But of course, we've seen feminists make a linkeage between abortion and child abuse as a reason to interfere with parental involvement in invasive surgery, even with a judicial bypass, which would be the best way to expose such abuse, an unrestricted abortion would keep it secret.
Such pro-abortion ads made a big splash with brain-dead hillbillies here.
Cheap dental crowns from China may contain dangerous levels of LEAD
Dentists who use cut-price and potentially deadly crowns and dentures from China are putting their patients at risk, it was claimed today. ..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=528615&in_page_id=1770
Ally's Mom
eleven of them (if I counted right)
the tube is out
size of the victory
!!!!!!!!!!! (11)
to those to whom the enemy is seen
through a hated lifeline
(the visible symbol)
hope and fear forcefed
politics of the ICU
the world no larger than a room
Buenos Tardes Amigos
I am waiting for the dinner hour 8 pm in Iguazu, Argentina and will write a line or two. Today I did Iguazu Falls with a tour group. I walked myself to death in 90 degrees and have earned my dinner and the swim I just had in the gorgeous pool with its own waterfall. I´guazu Falls is amazing. I have done Niagra and the ones at Yosemite but not Victoria Falls. These just go everywhere in a carpet of green. I took a ton of photos and will upload a few to Flickr for anyone interested when I return. I saw a beautiful bird looked like a woody woodpecker and a family of little animals that looked like a cross between raccoons and anteaters. Also a ton of butterflies in colors I have never seen before on a butterfly. Oúr tour was interesting in that we needed two guides it wasnçt such a big group but there were 5 languages. So our guide did the Spanish and English and the other did Italian, French, and German. The fellow travelers were very pleasant. I conversed with a woman about my age from Spain who spoke English and a honeymooning couple from Mexico City. I molested a guy playing the bandoneon on the park just kidding but someone took our picture and that is what it looks like I am doing. I will upload it too and you can be the judge. I can not think of anything else to tell. I am supposed to fly to Ushuaia tomorrow. Via BA. With a 45 minute layover so may never make it. If I make it and can find an internet cafe I will write from there. Adios.
If I am one of the anti Semites I was married to a Jew for 15 years. I did make a comment about all the Jews that are on the Fed. Actually I just was echoing Daneíel. If they were all Mormons or Muslims or Catholics or something I believe that would give us pause also. And it is not their Jewishness at all but their connection to Israel that is worth further investigation imo. Actualy the Fed is what is scary not the religion or ethnicity of the board members. They are semi private. They decide our money. They make more money. They took us off the gold standard I believe. And btw what happened to the gold in Ft Knox.
I still like Dean for VP. Who better to push BO, should he win, into peace and progressive thinking and fight the corporate power?
All war off the table. Period. Not from this country. Not anymore.
Peace HAS to start somewhere and the way BO is talking, it won't be here. Or with him.
Reduce the size of our military, except for defense. That will get the attention of our *enemies.*
Killing is so much easier, isn't it, then admitting one has been wrong and that one is greedy and scared of different kinds of thinking.
************************
I think home-schooling is fine...except....when the parents are RW "soldiers for christ" types, teaching their kids to hate and not think for themselves. Not allowing your kids to think and question is a form of abuse. The MO Synod Lutheran church tried to convince me that unbaptized babies go to hell. Didn't work. I figured out that it's the lutheran ministers who go to hell. Just kidding of course, since I believe that hell is a state of mind.
I remember Gravel in a debate saying that "we have no enemies." People were appalled but I think he's right and ahead of his time, at least in the debate. Enemies are perceived states of opinions, judgments, fear, projections. We need to get the hang of the fact that when we hurt and demean and judge others, we're hurting ourselves. Perceptions are tricky things, posing as truth, soothing the ego that wants to be right all the time.
Seashell....
Finally, a Deaniac who is willing to play Hardball. You are exactly right to want to extract something from the candidate in turn for your vote or support, and that being you said a VP to your liking.
W need to contact them and spell out what we want from them. Just their campaign rhetoric is not enough, too soon forgotten. They are very busy right now offering goodies to the right, because they think they have us in the bag.
Now, if we are going to take another vote on who DFA should support, I want to hear exactly what DFA is going to extract from this candidate before we just wrap it up with ribbons and hand our support to them.
We usually say that it is for our country, but that works two ways.
Is DFA willing to play HARDBALL or not?
I teach comm coll folks. The ones who have been home schooled are not as sick of school, are not afraid of teachers, are still curious about the world. I believe if I were young and energetic I would seriously consider it for my children if I had any. The drawback is they are not as well socialized. This is of course and obviously a generalization.
Travels with Annilow
good report, I can picture it in my mind
Yellowstone has a Falls worth the hike down to from the highway too, and a Park full of pretty neat creatures, but I have been there and might not make it to Iguazu
hope the pictures upload OK
Not to worry, Anni. I also questioned all the Jews being on the Fed Reserve Board. Daniel and I got trashed for that. Even by Fred.
I dated Jews all during high school, my great love for 25 years is a Jew, and my favorite guys to date have always been island, brown or black guys. Go figure. LOL
White guys can't dance! :-) (generalization)
Have fun!
Phil,
I believe the Democratic Convention (August 25-28is before the Republican one (Sept 1-4) unless something has changed I don't know about.
Nice Dem spot to keep track of the statis:
Anni, the Latin men are very *molestable.* They love it and they think we're exotic. Learn how to say, "me caes bien." ... It means " I like you." It will open many doors, some of which you many not want to walk thru. LOL And don't make the mistake I once made.
"Tengo calor" means I'm hot from the weather.
"Estoy caliente" could mean I'm warm but it really means, "I'm horny."
I once said "Estoy caliente" and the guy said that we should go immediately to his house! Oh I love those Latin men.
While on a cruise into the Oronoco River into Venzuela, we took a small Delta plane tour over Angel Falls -- the tallest in the world and completely surrounded by mountainous terrain. It is the only way to see the falls, but even when the plane is midway up the falls, it iwas somewhat spotty seeing it all since we were in some light clouds which are almost always present.
I am drooling over mary's trip. It must be fantastic.
Joan
Since you are in Florida am I right to assume though that Hillary would have a tough time there if McCain picks your Gov. as a running mate?
FRED from Ashland OR
Sun, 03/09/08
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Freddie,
It boils down to what you define "abuse" as............I would bet 90% of the kids home schooled by their "qualified" parents will someday, down the road willhold that modified form of torture (acordng to many kids that regard school as just that these days) against their............many that is................
Personally, I think a mimimun amount of home schooling from parents and even siblings as necessary, but the lack of social skills and lack of exposure to many differant "kinds" of fellow classmates is a detriment to home schooling.................
Johns wording is quite corect.............if you can think back millenia when you were a kid in school................do you recall the adjectives you had for it then?
seashell wrote:
I still like Dean for VP.
Strongly seconded!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Joan and seashel.........me too............however this is not "fantasyland" at Disneyworld..............
deans finished.............i was a great run and cause.............but its............over.
Peace HAS to start somewhere and the way BO is talking, it won't be here. Or with him.
Reduce the size of our military, except for defense. That will get the attention of our *enemies.*
well, to me 'taking nothing off the table' isn't waging war, it IS defense - I'm not sure what that term means to you. it is exactly what Howard said in 2003 and I don't recall you going off on him about it all the time. I do believe that if we are perceived as 'too weak' the bad actors of the world will start more wars with nations they currently leave be because of the threat of our defense of them. for reductions let's start by getting rid of the soldiers for hire - the Blackwaters, et al that are not only giving good soldiers a bad name but also stealing our treasure - whether thru bad contracts, fraud or simply having inept Bushies in charge with no oversight of the process.
All war off the table. Period. Not from this country. Not anymore.
Peace HAS to start somewhere and the way BO is talking, it won't be here. Or with him.
Reduce the size of our military, except for defense. That will get the attention of our *enemies.*
Killing is so much easier, isn't it, then admitting one has been wrong and that one is greedy and scared of different kinds of thinking.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Its 5.47pm........
Very commendable seashell............but this is the USA..........military indistrial complex, ME corrution and influence in washington, 1/2 population gun nuts and 911 panic stricken to anything that even looks like its wearin a turbin etc...............
Without an "enemy"...........this country does look rather foolish much of the time.............
Gov. Charlie Christ would be a formidable opponent, and I think the choice that Mc will make.
If you listen to him for two minutes, he makes more twists and turns than a mountain road. Cherubic expression while he lies his head off, a great shmoosler with something up his sleeve.
Just the kind of Repug Mc is looking for.
Thankful2Thankful4Dean
Sun, 03/09/08
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Most if not all home schooling parents would not even be considered for an interview in this country for a teaching position at any public school....................thats not to say they wouldnt be god teachers, but they lack the proper credentialing................of course, afer close scrutiny of several of my daughters teachers over the years...................one has to sscratch ones head alot of the time......................
The best era for teaching was the 50s, 60s and 70s...................its been down hill ever since..........
audrey, I love your dedication to the cause but I doubt like hell Howard would want the VP slot - unless he wanted to run for POTUS again in 2016 and I highly doubt that. it is a crap job and I'm sure with his dedication and energy there are many things he would prefer to do and that would be much more valuable to the country. I think the fact that Obama is using the 50 state strategy says a lot about Howard's influence - if he wasn't using it, I'm sure there would be many here yelling and screaming at him about that! and I don't think Howard would really want to put his family through that again. it's one thing to support Howard for a position he has stated he wants, such as head of the DNC - it's quite another to try to start a movement to have him chosen as VP if he has no interest in it - think Al Gore 2004/2008. perhaps someone should ask Howard how he feels about it.
as a caveat, audrey, I too was calling for Dean for VP several months ago, no matter who won the primary. I have since learned a few things that lead me to believe he has no interest in the VP slot. I certainly could be wrong, but certain circumstances have led me to believe that.
Karen - that 'Uncle Hillary' vid is right on the money - pun intended!
new thread
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By Monica Smith on Mar 9, 2008 1:33 PM EDTDean is first.