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8 Questions

Written by: DFA Staff on Mar 4, 2008 11:30 AM EST

Dan Balz at the Washington Post asks 8 questions that today's primaries might answer:

1. Will the Democratic race end with today's results?
2. Can Clinton ever overtake Obama in pledged delegates?
3. How badly will competition split the Democratic Party?
4. What will superdelegates do if Obama wins one big state?
5. Will Clinton hold her blue-collar base?
6. Will Obama crack the Hispanic vote?
7. Will McCain persuade Huckabee to quit?
8. Can you explain the Texas voting system?

Danny
Communications Director

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By Jessica Falker on Mar 4, 2008 12:48 PM EST

Deans and Obama are first today!

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By Ellen Garneau on Mar 4, 2008 12:50 PM EST

Howard is first!

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By Ellen Garneau on Mar 4, 2008 12:51 PM EST
1. Will the Democratic race end with today's results? Probably Not.
2. Can Clinton ever overtake Obama in pledged delegates?  Probably Not.
3. How badly will competition split the Democratic Party? Not at all.
4. What will superdelegates do if Obama wins one big state? Vote with the People!
5. Will Clinton hold her blue-collar base? No
6. Will Obama crack the Hispanic vote? (crack??) Yes
7. Will McCain persuade Huckabee to quit? Probably Not.
8. Can you explain the Texas voting system? No. But I live in the great state of Vermont!!!
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By Jessica Falker on Mar 4, 2008 12:51 PM EST

I just got home from voting. 5 minute line wait! I've never waited in line to vote!

Then Dogma and I did some Honk and Wave for Obama. I think there was about an equal number of enthusiastic waves to thumbs down (but that would include the R's too). Also some less enthusiastic waves or no wave at all. No one gave us the finger or yelled obscenities at us :-)

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By Jessica Falker on Mar 4, 2008 12:56 PM EST

1. Will the Democratic race end with today's results?

Hopefully.

2. Can Clinton ever overtake Obama in pledged delegates?

No.

3. How badly will competition split the Democratic Party?

Not at all.

4. What will superdelegates do if Obama wins one big state?

Talk to themselves about how important they are.

5. Will Clinton hold her blue-collar base?

She never had it.

6. Will Obama crack the Hispanic vote?

Yes.

7. Will McCain persuade Huckabee to quit?

Yes.

8. Can you explain the Texas voting system?

No.

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By floridagal . on Mar 4, 2008 12:11 PM EST

Help get the word out.  There is an emergency situation in Texas in the Dallas area, Dallas county.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1881

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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 1:00 PM EST

GREAT ANALYSIS. THANKS JESS FOR YOUR TAKE.

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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 1:03 PM EST

1. Will the Democratic race end with today's results?

 How many lies do hillary and terry have left?


2. Can Clinton ever overtake Obama in pledged delegates?

NO


3. How badly will competition split the Democratic Party?

Not at all


4. What will superdelegates do if Obama wins one big state?

Go for him


5. Will Clinton hold her blue-collar base?

No
6. Will Obama crack the Hispanic vote?

Si
7. Will McCain persuade Huckabee to quit?

Who cares. Let the wacko stay in.


8. Can you explain the Texas voting system?

Yes, it is difficult. Evidently you get to vote twice.

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By dog soldier on Mar 4, 2008 12:24 PM EST

A very interesting article about Hillary and the economy.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23465307/

The most surprising thing to me...One party running Washington works best..as far as the stock market is concerned.


[snip]
But policy isn't just decided by the President. Congress will have a major role in every pocketbook issue. Every election year, commentators argue that gridlock, when Congress and the President are controlled by opposite parties, is best for investors. That's "predicated on a very cynical view of our political system" -- that government is at its best when it does nothing, says Johnson. It's also false, according to his research: From 1949 to 2004, the stock market returned about 6.4% annually in the 33.5 years when neither party simultaneously controlled the White House, the House and the Senate. But in the 22.5 years when one party controlled the Executive branch and both houses of Congress, the market returned 22% a year, Johnson, Scott Beyer, and Gerald Jensen found in a 2006 study.



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By mary vb on Mar 4, 2008 12:27 PM EST

Obama will release his numbers for Feb probably tomorrow (north of 70MM I bet) and a new flood of the Super D's. That will bury Clinton imo.

Off to the dentist.

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By jane d on Mar 4, 2008 1:17 PM EST

1. Will the race end with today's results? We can hope!
2. Can HRC overtake BO in pledeged delegates? Not if the rules of logic hold.
3. How badly will the competition split the party? Split the people? not at all. Split the people who THINK they are the party? Perhaps.
4. What will superdelegates do if Obama wins a big state? Ummmmm, the right thing?
5. Will Clinton hold her blue collar base? Maybe the ones she had, but that may not have been the majority she thought it was.
6. Will Obama crack the Hispanic vote? Si, se puede.
7. Will McCain persuade Huckabee to quit? No, God will do that.
8. Jess just did a great job of explaining the Texas primary system. I couldn't have said it better. It's not rocket science, and my 18 year old nephew, who voted in TX for the first time (early) last week, seems to understand it. He and his buds went to hear Barack speak. They were so excited they got up early the next day to vote before school.
Yes, we can!
Jane

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By dog soldier on Mar 4, 2008 12:30 PM EST

If Obama wins, the Dem party is united with independents. Dems win big in November.
If Billary wins, Dems are divided, independents go with McCain and we lose big time.

I don't think Hillary's scorched earth policy is such a big deal. McCain will be just as bad but he has more points to attack.

For a view on candidate Iraq war strategy,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amb-marc-g...

[snip]
1. Concede the point on no attack on the homeland, but give credit where it is most due: to our first responders, a more diligent public, and the James Bond-like talent of the British counter-intelligence services that have broken up a number of home grown plots against the U.S.

2. McCain has tied his fortunes to the success of the military surge. But today's visit of Iran's president Ahmadenijad to Baghdad should be a wake up call to Americans that when our presence in Iraq dissipates, the surge will never stop Sunnis and Iran-backed Shiites from settling their scores after we eventually leave, with a Shiite-dominated government increasingly aligned with Iran and not the U.S. or our interests in the Middle East.

3. Afghanistan/Pakistan ("AfPak" for short), is where the ultimate fight against Al Qaeda must be waged, and as long as the surge continues, along with unyielding McCain determination to keep 140K troops in Iraq, there will never be enough troops to undo the damage to the AfPak campaign that the Bush/McCain surge in Iraq has cost us there. And Al Qaeda will continue to do precisely what the CIA has warned it is already doing.

Republicans, including McCain, are ideologically straight-jacketed from implementing a new, more effective approach against Al Qaeda. Nothing in McCain's speeches suggests that he will take his foot off the military pedal (which so far has not worked) and begin using a better "mil-dip" mix of fuel against Al Qaeda.

Democrats bring to the struggle against Al Qaeda a reinvigorated and imaginative determination to marshal both military and diplomatic forces and skills that the Bush/McCain policies have failed to deploy. McCain occasionally talks about it, but he then inflames the broader Muslim world every time he utters his repeated Guiliani-like sobriquet "Islamo-facists."


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By dog soldier on Mar 4, 2008 12:37 PM EST

One reason why I despise Hillary.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andrew-gum...

[snip]
"The gift of freedom" is, of course, a curious way to describe an unprovoked invasion and occupation causing hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and leaving just about every aspect of life chaotic and fraught with daily dangers. To then lay responsibility for the mess on the Iraqis -- we did our bit, now you do yours -- is the worst kind of dishonesty, a complete abdication of moral principles. It's the sort of thing George Bush has said to justify his decision both to launch the invasion in the first place and then stay the course -- a course Hillary Clinton has spent many months telling primary and caucus voters she thinks was misconceived from the start.

Why, then, is she taking on the president's rhetorical tropes? Could it be she didn't -- and doesn't -- oppose the Iraq war quite as much as she's been letting on?

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By Pat in Colorado on Mar 4, 2008 12:44 PM EST

Morning Folks,

A storm moving in here.  I'm hoping that we'll see the best of Americans today, voting for a change in Washington DC by eschewing polarization, eschewing dirty tricks, mockery, triangulaton, authoritarianism.  I'm hoping Americans will vote for democracy, for shared values, for unity as a country, for repair of our infrastructure, for listening to many points of view, for thoughtfulness, for critical thinking, for generosity.  I'm hoping we'll see the best of us prevail today.

Thanks to bloggers for posting the information about the NAFTA/ Canadian contact.  How typical of the Clintons: Bill suggests a meeting with an Obama adviser tp a Canadian contact, then the Canadian counterpart leaks a statement slanted and detrimental to the Obama stance, an ant exploded into a Godzilla.

The economics professor, not even the top adviser, saying that while Obama wants to refine NAFTA but isn't against global trade spun as dishonesty and campaign rhetoric, aren't we about done with such hype, such mendacity?  I'm hoping the American people are. Are we bright enough, honest enough, determined enough to see through the kinds of power plays the Clintons and other authoritarians use?

John Dean is his book , Broken Government, calls politicians that do this, authoritarians.  They don't respect the rule of law, don't have any interest whatsoever in a democracy, and it's power at all costs.

 Politics is the art of negotiating with people, and good will and honesty, trust, the ability to see more than one perspective, and to think long term are what it's about.  We haven't had leadership in a long time, and now we're at a crucial turning point. Are we wise enough to make the right decision?

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By Jessica Falker on Mar 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST

OK, off to the Rutland HQ.

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By Phil Specht on Mar 4, 2008 1:52 PM EST
1. Will the Democratic race end with today's results?No
2. Can Clinton ever overtake Obama in pledged delegates?No
3. How badly will competition split the Democratic Party?Not at all
4. What will superdelegates do if Obama wins one big state? continue to gradually go his way
5. Will Clinton hold her blue-collar base?yes
6. Will Obama crack the Hispanic vote?yes
7. Will McCain persuade Huckabee to quit?no
8. Can you explain the Texas voting system?New Hampshire followed by Iowa: the whole idea is to allocate national convention delegates fairly
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By * rdorgan on Mar 4, 2008 1:12 PM EST

1:22 PM EST

Just popping in for a quick thank you to Jo and Phil for the 25th congrats they sent.

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By * rdorgan on Mar 4, 2008 1:13 PM EST

1:23 PM EST

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Barack-Obama/photo//080304/photos_en_afp/0f4b21c9c432354831b3d365f4639b24//s:/afp/20080304/en_afp/usvoteobamajapan_080304133427;_ylt=AgBU5DpB13SaAJlFf09AnGsnncUF

Staff at the Sekumiya Hotel display a good luck sign for the ...

Staff at the Sekumiya Hotel display a good luck sign for the US presidential candidate Barack Obama in February 2008. Obama has sent a letter saluting his supporters in a Japanese town that shares his name, delighting residents who are rooting for the US Senator to win his party's presidential nomination.(AFP/Shaun Tandon)

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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 2:05 PM EST

Phil just to let you know, I have sent all my super delegates and elected officials in Va. my resume. Also talked to Jim this a.m..

Thanks for the info.

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By Phil Specht on Mar 4, 2008 2:10 PM EST

linda b

Jim should be a big help. Good thinking.

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By Monica Smith on Mar 4, 2008 1:21 PM EST

Action item if you're in the neighborhood.

 

http://www.blogforamerica.com/view/24092 

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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 2:12 PM EST
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By Jo*in*Vermont on Mar 4, 2008 1:29 PM EST

a snippet of Vermont, from yesterday:

...But in the closest primary campaign in a generation, neither candidate can afford to surrender a single delegate, so both are devoting unprecedented attention to New England's smallest states...


...The Clinton camp has nine staffers there and is hosting phone-banking parties; Chelsea Clinton dropped by the University of Vermont in Burlington on Friday; and the campaign even sent a delegation of farmers from New York state across the border to talk with their Vermont neighbors about agricultural policy.


But Vermonters' excitement about Obama seems positively feverish. Hundreds of canvassers went door-to-door over the weekend. Staffers drove around in a couple of trucks, donated by Ben & Jerry's founders, decorated with a giant O and a picture of a cow. When the campaign recently asked Deb Shumlin, a jewelry-maker and the wife of state Senate President Peter Shumlin, to organize a small audience in Putney to listen to Anthony Lake, a former national security adviser to President Bill Clinton and now an Obama foreign policy adviser, the aim was to get 25 people. Shumlin was astounded when 325 people showed up.

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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 2:20 PM EST

Barack uber alles.

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By sunlight on Mar 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST

I just missed a call from Hillary. She did leave a message. She said it's going to be close.

Hope she is wrong.

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By rich^kolker on Mar 4, 2008 2:25 PM EST

I'll just hit the last one, because I lived in texas for a long stretch.

It's really quite easy.

You vote in the primary.  When the polls close, you return to your polling place and caucus by election precinct.

Generally, only a few people return.  When I served in 1992 and 1996, there were about five people in my precinct who returned to caucus.  This was in suburban Houston.  My guess is the caucuses will be busier this time around. 

The caucus selects delegates to the district conventon, usually held about a month later.  Generally, if you want to be a district delegate, you are.  This may be different this time with a more competitive race.

The district caucuses select delegates to the regional caucus.  Again, when I was there, this was pretty much "if you're interested, you are selected". 

The regional caucuses are large (several hundred) and local candidates all come and talk, and the delegates to the state convention are chosen.  In this case, there is some competition, but if you show a lot of interest and work your group, you can generally get elected.

The state convention chooses the national delegates.  Getting selected for that is hard unless you campaign.

In theory, the percentages of delegates for each candidate are controlled by results of the primary, but there's nothing really binding someone, which can lead to mischief.

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By audrey.nc on Mar 4, 2008 1:49 PM EST


Bush, in a very quick announcement said that we will "stand by" our ally Colombia. several countries have broken relations with Colombia after their incursion into Equador to kill rebels there.

After a minute or two of trying to sound urgent, he told Congress they needed to hurry up and pass the FTA trade extension. Business as usual....BOOO!! NOW DO AS i SAY.

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By on Mar 4, 2008 2:44 PM EST

Neo-Cons Scramblehttp://www.infowars.com/?p=583 To Downplay Shameful Puppy Video

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By Stat Man on Mar 4, 2008 2:00 PM EST

Crazy random thoughts:

 

- If Clinton wins will Bloomberg start talking about a third party

- If Clinton wins, General Powell would be a slam dunk VP candiate for McCain.  It would piss off the base but would play into Clinton's Race Baiting campaigning.

 

 

 

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By FRED from OR on Mar 4, 2008 2:54 PM EST

Tom Daschle was very good last night on the first half of Charlie Rose. He is an Obama supporter, and give an exellent discussion of why.

watch it online or catch the TV rerun today

http://www.charlierose.com/home/

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By Phil Specht on Mar 4, 2008 2:57 PM EST

As you heard last week, The Paul Wellstone Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act has been scheduled for a vote in the House on Wednesday, March 5th.

Call today!  I'm making my 9th trip out to Washington because millions of American lives, and a critical part of my father's legacy, are at stake.  After all the years and all the promises, we need to pass mental health and addiction fairness legislation out of the House. 

I know it's been a long campaign, but we need you to call one more time.

Call your Member of Congress TODAY and ask them to vote YES on the Paul Wellstone Mental Health and Addiction Equity Act (HR 1424).

Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121 - ask to be connected to your Representative

David Wellstone

www.wellstone.org

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By Jean Wyant on Mar 4, 2008 2:11 PM EST

For those trying to phone Cong. Silvestre Reyes (who chairs the House Intell committee) asking him NOT to make a deal giving retroactive immunity to telecoms, here's his DC office number: 202-225-4831.

The voicemail at the Intel committee office is full, and Reyes' home office number in TX is busy.

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By Sitka on Mar 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST

If Clinton wins, General Powell would be a slam dunk VP candiate for McCain.

Footage of Powell lying to the UN could come in handy. 

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By on Mar 4, 2008 3:10 PM EST

The Death of Vince http://www.truthnews.us/?p=2047Foster: What Really Happened?

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By Susan Rowe on Mar 4, 2008 2:24 PM EST

While multi-billion dollar prison, jail and youth detention jails are on the rise...

The California Teachers Assn. estimates that 5,000 notices of possible layoffs have been issued statewide and predicts more by March 15, the date by which districts must first notify teachers that their jobs are in danger.

---

Schools operate in crisis mode

Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times

Jorge Alvarez, 24, graduated from Rialto High School and returned to teach in the district because he wanted to give back to his community. He now fears being laid off.
Districts across the state are laying off workers as they await $4.8-billion reduction proposed by governor. In Rialto, 305 staffers will be cut. ... http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-...

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By Susan Rowe on Mar 4, 2008 2:35 PM EST

1. Will the Democratic race end with today's results? Maybe

2. Can Clinton ever overtake Obama in pledged delegates? No

3. How badly will competition split the Democratic Party? Not sure

4. What will superdelegates do if Obama wins one big state? Endorse him

5. Will Clinton hold her blue-collar base? No

6. Will Obama crack the Hispanic vote? Yes he will!

7. Will McCain persuade Huckabee to quit? No

8. Can you explain the Texas voting system? Yes

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By mary vb on Mar 4, 2008 3:24 PM EST

Just read at Politico that Obama will be releasing his fundraising numbers this week and the new super d's will be out endorsing. Those are the nails in Clinton's coffin so to speak.


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By rich^kolker on Mar 4, 2008 3:25 PM EST

I was talking to a Texan, and he said its possible what we're seeing in the polls is a slowing of Obama's momentum, maybe enough for Hillary to squeak out a win in Texas.

I hope not.  Not because I'm supporting Obama, but because if it is, what will get credit is the "3am" ad, which will mean a flash bang return to the politics of fear I was hoping we'd mostly avoid this time around.

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By rich^kolker on Mar 4, 2008 3:25 PM EST

Hey, my posts are showing up at the end of the thread today.

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By mary vb on Mar 4, 2008 3:28 PM EST

This is hilarious - from a poster at Kos.

------
Hillary... (0 / 0)
...Put the gun down, back away with your hands up and nobody gets hurt. We're all friends here right? You just got a little carried away, but this can all be over now.

by mralex1974 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:39:31 AM PST
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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 3:52 PM EST

DANIEL ROONEY
Tue, 03/04/08

Reply to this

The Death of Vince http://www.truthnews.us/?p=2047Foster: What Really Happened?

 ARE YOU FOR REAL? GO GET A LIFE.
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By puddle on Mar 4, 2008 3:54 PM EST

The Death of Vince http://www.truthnews.us/?p=2047Foster: What Really Happened?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Rooney, get your sorry ass over to the Limbaugh blog. Though I don't think even *they* accept this shit anymore.

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By puddle on Mar 4, 2008 3:55 PM EST

Hi, lindab, lol! Great minds, etc. ♡

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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 3:56 PM EST

WHY IS COLIN POWELL NOT IN JAIL?

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By linda b on Mar 4, 2008 3:57 PM EST

hey puddle, can't wait to see you at democracy fest.

wow you really told rooney, u r a Hero of mine.

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By puddle on Mar 4, 2008 4:01 PM EST

Just FYI: Barak is like Amtrak --> no "c" before the "k"

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By puddle on Mar 4, 2008 4:03 PM EST

lindab, *interesting,* YOU"RE a hero of *mine*. . . .

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By Joan In Florida on Mar 4, 2008 3:28 PM EST

good luck linda b. I just know you have what it takes and should get the GO word. Jim could certainly help with a phone call or email or two.

When will you know the results?

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By Tom Bearse on Mar 4, 2008 3:32 PM EST

New thread.

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By Denise in San Mateo County on Mar 4, 2008 3:36 PM EST

No Barack is spelled.....Barack! :)

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By puddle on Mar 4, 2008 5:08 PM EST

Oboy, was I WRONG: there is a C in Barack. In Hebrew, there isn't. In fact. . . . nevermind.

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By Louise Passick on Mar 5, 2008 1:32 PM EST
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By Louise Passick on Mar 5, 2008 1:36 PM EST

This is all Senator Obama needs - to add to the litany of abuses heaped on his name, self, and campaign. We want to help Senator Obama - not bury him under a link to Teutonic verbiage. Long may Barack Obama wave! YES WE CAN!!

bklyn 

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